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May 23, 2012

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Romney wants a Nevada caucus win (should anyone care)

Published Friday, Jan. 4, 2008 | 12:13 p.m.

Updated Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008 | 2:14 p.m.

Remember, blog readers, the Democrats aren't the only one holding a caucus on Jan. 19.

Following Romney's 2nd place showing to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Iowa on Thursday night, his campaign manager held a conference call for reporters this morning to put the best face on what will kindly be described as a disappointing showing. (The call was supposed to be with former Gov. Kenny Guinn, but he had to cancel because of a scheduling conflict.)

Ryan Erwin expressed confidence in Romney's Silver State campaign organization, and said no major changes are in store.

"Anyone who makes huge changes at this point, it would be a huge mistake to do so," he said. That's because the caucus is reliant on turning out supporters, unlike a primary state, where ad buys to reach more casual voters can be adjusted.

Nevada's Republican caucus is being vastly overshadowed by South Carolina's early Republican pick held on the same day. But Erwin said that Romney is hoping for a strong showing in all the early states, creating a sustained series of smaller victories instead of the big splashes. Put another way, if Romney wins Nevada, and the national media chooses not to listen, does it make a sound?

"You can't control what you can't control," Erwin said of the lack of national media attention. "Sharing the day with South Carolina, Nevada alone will not provide a huge bump. But combined with other results, it will be a significant bump."

Erwin said he expects Romney to come out "a time or two before the caucus" but made clear he couldn't make any promises.

Huckabee on a shoestring beat Romney and his considerable campaign coffers by 9 points on Thursday, largely due to large Evangelical Christian voters. Nevada does not seem to have that same demographic, or at least they have not flexed any clout in elections. On the other hand, Mormons, of which Romney is one, have a sizable population in Nevada, and have a strong history of getting elected here.

Last night and in this morning's paper, both the Democratic and Republican Nevada caucuses have been given short shrift. A key difference though, is that Democratic candidates have invested significant resources in staff and appearances to Nevada, while national Republican campaigns don't seem to realize the Republicans schedule.

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